Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Exciting goats; GTCB

Yesterday, before the opening, I was speaking of a possible exciting week for GTCB.
That same day the nervous goats moved and the stock closed up 12,5% at 1,80. Volume was 250% (817.729) of the average volume (327.049).

People are getting exciting and want to be in this week for the approval. This is good since it causes the stock to rise significantly, but there's also a downside; if the EMEA doesn't come with approval this week, the stock might go down strong again. But remember; approval doesn't have to come in september or this week, it could also come in october!

Just sit tight!

Monday, September 12, 2005

watchlist update; SNUS

I posted SNUS on the first of September as a stock to watch. Since then it consolidated some and came down quite strong last Friday.

So it went up on high volume from almost the bottom of the price channel to the top, then consolidated and came down again. If you look at the chart you can draw 2 ascending trendlines which are functioning as the support of the price channel. If the 1st line is broken it jumps of the 2nd line. Friday it touched the 1st line and I expect SNUS to move up again in the coming days.

It's a moderate Buy to my opinion, since I expect it to move at least to the top of the channel again.

the chart:

Nervous Goats; GTCB

This technical trade is becoming a fundamental one....

The stock went down quite a bit since my purchase moments (I'm in for 1,85), so the question right now is how much pain I can take. With this trade it's quite a lot I'll tell you!

Technicly speaking I had to sell already a while ago. So why didn't I stick to the TA and sold?
Because I'm very confident about the approval, and because I see a very nervous crowd.

Nobody exactly knows when to expect the approval, and people are nervous about the stock going down and not wanting to miss the approval. Because I'm confident about GTCB getting the approval, I'm holding. I wouldn't want to miss the big gap up when the news comes!

An interesting date to watch is September the 15th;

60 Day Timetable for Type II Variations, Renewals,
Annual Re-Assessments and Responses to the List
of Questions (Full Applications)
Submission date Start date Opinion Date
12-Nov-04 21-Nov-04 20-Jan-05
10-Dec-04 19-Dec-04 17-Feb-05
7-Jan-05 16-Jan-05 17-Mar-05
11-Feb-05 20-Feb-05 21-Apr-05
18-Mar-05 27-Mar-05 26-May-05
15-Apr-05 24-Apr-05 23-Jun-05
20-May-05 29-May-05 28-Jul-05
17-Jun-05 N/A N/A
8-Jul-05 17-Jul-05 15-Sep-05
5-Aug-05 14-Aug-05 13-Oct-05

http://www.emea.eu.int/htms/human/presub/Submission%20dates%202005-2008.pdf

This could be an exciting week!

For the chart the only good thing is that we did manage to close at the 1,60 support last Friday..
Let's see how much more pain GTCB is going to give me!


Down but strong; SMTX

SMTX has been coming down for a few days in a row now. Friday it even opened at 3,00 (which was the low of the day)

Despite the loss SMTX is showing me at this moment, I'm still confident about the stock; It has made it's up movements on very high volume, and the last 3 days where it came down from 3,50+ to 3,00 the volume was low.

SMTX also opened right at the ascending trendline I have for this stock, and came of strong (3,32) to close above at 3,10. I expect SMTX to go further up today and stay above this ascending trendline...

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

Breaking out; PETS

Remember me studying PETS, to see if I was right that momentum was fading for this stock?

Yesterday PETS finally proved me wrong on my 2nd prediction;
It broke out of the triangle on the upside. It also did so on high volume making it a valid break out.
It did not however manage to get higher than the beginning of the triangle, which is required for a real, strong break out.

I will keep watching PETS to learn something about momentum.
Lesson I learned here is that volume alone isn't telling the whole story....


Doji play; SMTX

SMTX showed quite some intraday action the last few days, resulting in 4 Doji's in a row.
Daytraders could have had some fun with SMTX, but since I'm no daytrader I just have to sit tight and watch. For me the following rule applies:
Don't sell if you didn't turned bearish on a stock

Since SMTX is still above the ascending trendline and I don't see any bearish signs I'm still bullish on this stock. I even see another bullish sign; The 50MA crossing the 200MA is a bullish sign.

So no surprise that I'm holding this stock.


Alive and Kicking; RITA

It seems like RITA overheard me saying the things I said about her yesterday ;)

She now did show some action on some more volume (still not high volume) and she even gapped open a few cents. She closed the gap and ran to an high of 3,75 to close at 3,72. So she finally showed us a white marubozu here.

The trading plan is still simple, and with RITA out of the triangle it is even more simple (perhaps dull? ;)); hold as long as RITA closes above the ascending trendline, which comes in today around 3,52

Monday, September 05, 2005

Triangle escape; RITA

Quiet day today since it is Labor Day, so I have time to post another update.

Let's look at RITA;

She finally managedto get out of the triangle on the upside, although not on high volume. Because she didn't really make a move on high volume I don't consider this a valid break out.

We will have to see how RITA behaves the coming days to really see what play RITA is playing.
In the mean time the plan is simple; HOLD as long as RITA closes above the ascending trendline.


Thursday, September 01, 2005

Watchlist; SNUS

SNUS showed some nice action yesterday; a great white marubuzo on heavy volume. It went straight to the top of the bullish price channel.
Today SNUS retraced due to some profit taking on lower volume. Will watch SNUS pull back to the beginning of the white marubuzo around 4,25. If it will retract to this level on declining volume, and manage to stay above 4,25 this is definately a strong buy.
So keep an eye on SNUS!

tight triangle; RITA

RITA is still moving exactly within the triangle. It even touched the ascending support line intraday yesterday, and closed at the descending resistance.

With volume slightly increasing im expecting RITA to break out any time now.


healthy consolidation: SMTX

SMTX just behaved like I hoped and predicted it would do; A pullback to 2,92 where the bulls could take over and even carry the stock to 3,58. Close at 3,25 printed a Doji.
With almost exactly the same volume as the day before this was a healthy and bullish consolidation.
I picked up some SMTX at 3,10

I expect SMTX to go up on high volume again today as the bulls are taking over again.

Wednesday, August 31, 2005

2 up 2 down; SMTX

I'm probably going to pick up SMTX today;
It has gone up a lot already, but on good volume and momentum is still there.

SMTX has moved up in 2 days for the third time now, after wich it consolidated for 2 days on less volume the previous 2 times. I expect SMTX to behave this way again, so consolidating today, and going up again tomorrow.

I'm picking SMTX up for a quick play.

US Army bandage; PHARM.AS

My fundamental play Pharming brought some good news out this morning;

Pharming’s Recombinant Human Fibrinogen Selected For US Army Project ...
Biotech company Pharming Group N.V. (“Pharming” or “the Company”) (Euronext: PHARM) (PHARM.AS) announced today that its recombinant human fibrinogen (rhFIB) product has been selected for a US Army project.

Pharming’s rhFIB will be utilized in a US Army research project focusing on the development of fibrin bandages. For the supply of rhFIB and technical participation in the project, the Company will receive payments over the next year.

“We are pleased with the selection of our recombinant human fibrinogen product in the US Army project,” said Samir Singh, CBO at Pharming. “Given its commercial potential, Pharming intends to supply this unique material for the development of a number of end products.”

Pharming’s immediate focus is to develop recombinant human fibrinogen as an intermediate product for supply to companies and institutions. In addition, the Company is developing proprietary end products using rhFIB, such as the recombinant tissue sealant, to control bleeding in trauma situations.
Complete press release

The good news of this press release is the fact that Pharming will receive payments over the next year. Furthermore Singh is talking about a number of end products. So there is an announcement for more than one product.

All good news and the stock is currently up 3,38%


Tuesday, August 30, 2005

Oil prices will plunge

With oil prices still rising and setting new records, lot's of people are turning (or turned) bearish on the whole market.
Steve Forbes now came with a remarkable opinion; Oil prices will plunge to $30 - $35 within a year

Forbes, editor in chief of the magazine that bears his family name, made his prediction Monday during a keynote speech to corporate executives at Scottsdale's James Hotel.
Forbes said recent oil prices of more than $50 per barrel are the result of speculators.
"About $15 to $20 of the oil price is speculation," he said.


Study 2nd day; PETS

So I predicted the following things on PETS yesterday:
1. go up to the descending resistance from the triangle 2. get out the triangle on the bearish side.
So PETS moved more or less like I expected; It went up strong and closed at 10,55
On the intraday however PETS got to 10,72 which is an intraday spike out of the triangle. So far so good. The thing which is making me doubt (a little) if I get this prediciton right on both points, is yesterday's volume; It was still lower than the previous moves up, but it was higher then expected.

Volume will be interesting to watch today; A move further up on low volume is a signal of weakness (and probably a false break out), a move down or consolidation on average volume (or more) is also a signal of weakness. For the stock to prove strong it has to; either go further up on higher volume than yesterday, or consolidate on very low volume.