Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Exciting goats; GTCB

Yesterday, before the opening, I was speaking of a possible exciting week for GTCB.
That same day the nervous goats moved and the stock closed up 12,5% at 1,80. Volume was 250% (817.729) of the average volume (327.049).

People are getting exciting and want to be in this week for the approval. This is good since it causes the stock to rise significantly, but there's also a downside; if the EMEA doesn't come with approval this week, the stock might go down strong again. But remember; approval doesn't have to come in september or this week, it could also come in october!

Just sit tight!

Monday, September 12, 2005

watchlist update; SNUS

I posted SNUS on the first of September as a stock to watch. Since then it consolidated some and came down quite strong last Friday.

So it went up on high volume from almost the bottom of the price channel to the top, then consolidated and came down again. If you look at the chart you can draw 2 ascending trendlines which are functioning as the support of the price channel. If the 1st line is broken it jumps of the 2nd line. Friday it touched the 1st line and I expect SNUS to move up again in the coming days.

It's a moderate Buy to my opinion, since I expect it to move at least to the top of the channel again.

the chart:

Nervous Goats; GTCB

This technical trade is becoming a fundamental one....

The stock went down quite a bit since my purchase moments (I'm in for 1,85), so the question right now is how much pain I can take. With this trade it's quite a lot I'll tell you!

Technicly speaking I had to sell already a while ago. So why didn't I stick to the TA and sold?
Because I'm very confident about the approval, and because I see a very nervous crowd.

Nobody exactly knows when to expect the approval, and people are nervous about the stock going down and not wanting to miss the approval. Because I'm confident about GTCB getting the approval, I'm holding. I wouldn't want to miss the big gap up when the news comes!

An interesting date to watch is September the 15th;

60 Day Timetable for Type II Variations, Renewals,
Annual Re-Assessments and Responses to the List
of Questions (Full Applications)
Submission date Start date Opinion Date
12-Nov-04 21-Nov-04 20-Jan-05
10-Dec-04 19-Dec-04 17-Feb-05
7-Jan-05 16-Jan-05 17-Mar-05
11-Feb-05 20-Feb-05 21-Apr-05
18-Mar-05 27-Mar-05 26-May-05
15-Apr-05 24-Apr-05 23-Jun-05
20-May-05 29-May-05 28-Jul-05
17-Jun-05 N/A N/A
8-Jul-05 17-Jul-05 15-Sep-05
5-Aug-05 14-Aug-05 13-Oct-05

http://www.emea.eu.int/htms/human/presub/Submission%20dates%202005-2008.pdf

This could be an exciting week!

For the chart the only good thing is that we did manage to close at the 1,60 support last Friday..
Let's see how much more pain GTCB is going to give me!


Down but strong; SMTX

SMTX has been coming down for a few days in a row now. Friday it even opened at 3,00 (which was the low of the day)

Despite the loss SMTX is showing me at this moment, I'm still confident about the stock; It has made it's up movements on very high volume, and the last 3 days where it came down from 3,50+ to 3,00 the volume was low.

SMTX also opened right at the ascending trendline I have for this stock, and came of strong (3,32) to close above at 3,10. I expect SMTX to go further up today and stay above this ascending trendline...

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

Breaking out; PETS

Remember me studying PETS, to see if I was right that momentum was fading for this stock?

Yesterday PETS finally proved me wrong on my 2nd prediction;
It broke out of the triangle on the upside. It also did so on high volume making it a valid break out.
It did not however manage to get higher than the beginning of the triangle, which is required for a real, strong break out.

I will keep watching PETS to learn something about momentum.
Lesson I learned here is that volume alone isn't telling the whole story....


Doji play; SMTX

SMTX showed quite some intraday action the last few days, resulting in 4 Doji's in a row.
Daytraders could have had some fun with SMTX, but since I'm no daytrader I just have to sit tight and watch. For me the following rule applies:
Don't sell if you didn't turned bearish on a stock

Since SMTX is still above the ascending trendline and I don't see any bearish signs I'm still bullish on this stock. I even see another bullish sign; The 50MA crossing the 200MA is a bullish sign.

So no surprise that I'm holding this stock.


Alive and Kicking; RITA

It seems like RITA overheard me saying the things I said about her yesterday ;)

She now did show some action on some more volume (still not high volume) and she even gapped open a few cents. She closed the gap and ran to an high of 3,75 to close at 3,72. So she finally showed us a white marubozu here.

The trading plan is still simple, and with RITA out of the triangle it is even more simple (perhaps dull? ;)); hold as long as RITA closes above the ascending trendline, which comes in today around 3,52

Monday, September 05, 2005

Triangle escape; RITA

Quiet day today since it is Labor Day, so I have time to post another update.

Let's look at RITA;

She finally managedto get out of the triangle on the upside, although not on high volume. Because she didn't really make a move on high volume I don't consider this a valid break out.

We will have to see how RITA behaves the coming days to really see what play RITA is playing.
In the mean time the plan is simple; HOLD as long as RITA closes above the ascending trendline.


Thursday, September 01, 2005

Watchlist; SNUS

SNUS showed some nice action yesterday; a great white marubuzo on heavy volume. It went straight to the top of the bullish price channel.
Today SNUS retraced due to some profit taking on lower volume. Will watch SNUS pull back to the beginning of the white marubuzo around 4,25. If it will retract to this level on declining volume, and manage to stay above 4,25 this is definately a strong buy.
So keep an eye on SNUS!

tight triangle; RITA

RITA is still moving exactly within the triangle. It even touched the ascending support line intraday yesterday, and closed at the descending resistance.

With volume slightly increasing im expecting RITA to break out any time now.


healthy consolidation: SMTX

SMTX just behaved like I hoped and predicted it would do; A pullback to 2,92 where the bulls could take over and even carry the stock to 3,58. Close at 3,25 printed a Doji.
With almost exactly the same volume as the day before this was a healthy and bullish consolidation.
I picked up some SMTX at 3,10

I expect SMTX to go up on high volume again today as the bulls are taking over again.